The presidential election is the most important event of any country. This event has great influence on the overall future of the country. The economic developments of a country, Technological developments in a country, country’s infrastructure, foreign investments, financial developments, stock market happenings, growth in educational system, industrial expansion and social and cultural progress are all related with the election results. The Fisher Infographic is a money management firm, has published a fresh Infographics highlighting the election market trend in presidential election years, which occurs at the end of the fourth year. This cool Infographic from an investment firm has summarized the S&P five hundred’s average return in each year of a president’s term from the year 1926 to the year 2011.This index contains the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks which are actively traded in the United States. In this election analysis by Fisher shows 8.1% of returns in the first year of the presidential term, 8.9% of returns in the second year of the presidential term, 19.4% of returns in the third year of the presidential term and 10.9 % in the fourth year of the presidential term.
This is referred as Presidential Term Anomaly by fisher investment. The infographic also specifies the reason for higher returns in the third and fourth years. The current year is year four that means election year, so based on historical trend analysis it is said to have good returns in stocks. Second half of the entire term is tend to have less legislative risk aversion because typically presidents lose relative power at midterm elections. The new legislation usually supports redistribution of money, regulatory changes and property rights leading to high returns in stocks. Another factor mentioned is either reelecting a democrat or newly electing a republican, both has favorable stock averaging. This graph shows 95% possibilities of having positive annual returns.
